2009 Q4 Real Estate Trends

The residential real estate market is on track for a recovery in the fourth quarter, driven by first time buyers rushing trying to beat the November deadline. In many states this November's sales performance is strong, but notably is being compared to the worst uncertainty of the financial crisis.

The Wall Street Journal recently looked at the portion of homes in each state at or near negative equity and the overall statewide loan-to-value ration. Conditions are believed to be ripe for foreclosure opportunities in these states with the highest portion of homes at or near negative equity:

State Negative Equity Share Near** Negative Equity Share Negative or Near Negative Equity Share Loan-to-Value Ratio

Nevada 65% 4% 69% 114%

Arizona 48% 5% 52% 91%

Florida 45% 4% 49% 87%

Michigan 37% 6% 43% 84%

California 35% 4% 39% 72%

Georgia 24% 8% 32% 78%

Virginia 24% 6% 29% 71%

Ohio 20% 7% 27% 75%

Colorado 19% 8% 27% 72%

Maryland 22% 5% 26% 68%

Despite the seemingly long odds of closing a deal with Nevada statewide Loan-to-Value of 114%, Las Vegas November home sales shot up 48%.

Foreclosures and other financially distressed homes in the low price ranges accounted for many deals in Arizona. Major Florida markets showed strong signs of life in November, with existing home sales were up 61% statewide vs. a year ago: Dayton Beach up 84%, Fort Lauderdale up 39%, Fort Myers/Cape Coral up 113%, Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie up 78%, Fort Walton Beach up 78%, Gainesville up 90%, Jacksonville up 70%, Lakeland/Winter Haven up 46%, Melbourne/Titusville/Palm Bay up 19%, Miami up 24%, Ocala up 58%, Orlando up 79%, Panama City up 24%, Pensacola up 73%, Punta Gorda up 55%, Sarasota/Bradenton up 63%, Tallahassee up 74%, Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater up 34%, West Palm Beach/Boca Raton up 63%.

In Michigan, Detroit's median home price jumped 29 percent to $74,900. But Gentile says he thinks the price gain figures might be a bit misleading because many homeowners have been pulling their homes off the market because they don't want to compete with bank-owned foreclosure sales. "The amount of equity lost is just ridiculous," Gentile said..

In California, San Francisco had the sharpest price gain in November, but Los Angeles had the steepest sales fall.

Four Ohio markets – Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo - top the list for 2010. This is because prices have gotten so low that analysts predict they have only one way to go, and that is up. These bargain prices could attract a lot of interest. Cincinnati November home sales 33% greater than a year ago while Cleveland's median sales prices jumped 31 percent to $112,500 in November to lead the region.

Some believe that there is potential for decent price appreciation in the cities of Nebraska, West Virginia,Virginia,Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and North Dakota.

Here are some areas where the recovery already seems underway: Keeping with the observation that the Federal government only gets bigger, District of Columbia saw November contracts increase 42% over last year's level. Settlements were up 79% and inventory is down with 15% fewer listings.

In November northern Kentucky home sales up 38% while Louisville November home sales rose 68%.

Southern state North Carolina saw home sales in Triangle home sales rise 44% in October while Western NC Sales rose again in October. Alabama November homes sales were up 53%

In the Midwest, Nebraska continues to be largely unaffected by the downturn in real estate with Omaha November sales up 98%. Sales in Philadelphia surged 78% in November, while sales in Pittsburgh were up almost 57 percent from last year with biggest price increase of all Midwest metros.

Home sales in the Northeast are picking up. Inventory declined 24% in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Maine November sales were up 56%. The suburbs of New York City lagged behind the rest of the region, but still posted an increase of 37 percent from a year earlier. The median price for the area fell more than 3 percent to $382,000.

In the West, Seattle and Honolulu were among top five in November sales increase compared to last year. In Idaho,Boise November Sales more than doubled, Increase among the Nation’s Top Five.

Tags: Foreclosures, Home Sale Prices, Housing Inventory, Real Estate Trends

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